Based on UK abortion statistics from the last 4 years we predict the bill has the capability of saving up to 120,000 babies a year.
This is based on an assessment of abortions in England and Wales in the last 4 years.
| Estimated number of babies in in England & Wales 2020-2023, by gestation, who could have been be saved by this Bill | ||||
| Gestation | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| TOTAL abortions before 7 weeks | 112,626 | 107,549 | 128,682 | 151,265 |
| TOTAL abortions beyond 7 weeks | 97,291 | 106,707 | 122,695 | 126,705 |
| Ground D & E deduction* | 3859 | 4206 | 3816 | 4090 |
| Lives potentially saved (with deduction) | 93,432 | 102,501 | 118,879 | 122,615 |
This prediction is based on the latest abortion statistics and includes an estimated deduction for the exceptions permitted by the bill. These are to save the life of mother (Ground D), fetal abnormality (Ground E) and rape (not specified in grounds).
Scottish abortion figures do not have a gestational breakdown below 10 weeks in 2020-2021, with subsequent publications only showing the number of abortions before 9 weeks. Therefore the following table uses an average estimate as to the number of lives that could have been potentially saved.
| Estimated numbers of babies 2020-2024 in Scotland, by gestational cap, who could have been be saved by this Bill | |||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Abortions before 10 weeks | 12,169 | 12,376 | |||
| Abortions before 9 weeks | 26,672 | 28,920 | 29,632 | ||
| Lives potentially saved | 3651 | 3713 | 5927 | 6427 | 6585 |
| Calculated by: (Abortion figure/gestational cap) x (Gestational cap – 7 weeks) | |||||
Northern Irish abortions only began in 2021 and are even less detailed than other statistical breakdowns. They only give the total number of abortions before 10 weeks. In the following table a rough estimated average has been used.
| Estimated numbers of babies 2020-2024 in Northern Ireland, by gestational cap, who could have been be saved by this Bill | ||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
| All abortions under 10 weeks | – | 1449 | 1642 | 2006 | 2554 | 2530 |
| Lives potentially saved | – | 435 | 493 | 602 | 766 | 759 |
| Calculated by: (Abortion figure/gestational cap) x (Gestational cap – 7 weeks) | ||||||
When all three datasets are aligned across the three years where this alignment is possible the figures are encouraging indeed.
| COMBINED ESTIMATES OF LIVE POTENTIALLY SAVED ACROSS ALL FOUR COUNTRIES | ||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| 106,649 | 125,299 | 129,643 |
Please note the estimate also assumes:
- abortion rates will continue to increase until legal reform is brought in place;
- the bill is enacted in a form very much like the one we have laid out (i.e it is not severely changed by pro-abortion amendments rendering it less effective);
- compliance of abortion providers and women with the bill when enacted.
We should be clear: exactly how many babies a UK heartbeat bill will save is impossible to state for sure because we believe this bill will save lives by both hard and soft means – ‘hard’ being the changing of the law, and ‘soft’ being the public debate that surrounds the bill.
If this nation is cut to the heart over the matter of abortion it is possible many more lives will be saved. If we are hard-hearted and resist this life-giving olive branch that this bill offers, the figures could be much less optimistic.
It is our view that even if the bill fails to meet our estimates, the law and the public debate around it, will certainly serve to further safeguard the status of babies and reduce abortion figures.
It is also noteworthy that when compared to previous noble amendments submitted in the last decade to reduce abortion, this bill presents serious impovement on two additional counts:
- reduction of legal limit for selective abortions of babies with Down’s Syndrome from 40 weeks to 24 weeks;
- reduction of legal limit for abortion from 24 weeks to 22 weeks.
Reduction for Down Syndrome
Spearheaded by Heidi Carter, her challenge to the High Court was to bring abortion for down syndrome babies in line with abortion for other non-disabled babies at 24 weeks.
As you can see from the table, the number of babies that would be saved by such a measure would be around 550 a year assuming full compliance.
| Abortions by method, conducted on disabled babies after 22 weeks, 2020-2023, England & Wales | ||||
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Total abortions | 509 | 565 | 545 | 610 |
| Surgical | 58 | 123 | 100 | 120 |
| Vacuum aspiration | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dilatation and evacuation | 14 | 37 | 25 | 40 |
| Feticide with a surgical evacuation | 44 | 83 | 75 | 80 |
| Medical | 451 | 442 | 445 | 485 |
| Mifepristone with or | ||||
| Without misoprostol | 22 | 31 | 33 | 45 |
| Other medical agent | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Feticide with a medical evacuation | 427 | 408 | 409 | 440 |
It must be said that the clear intention of the heartbeat bill, when enacted is to remove non fatal conditions as a fair ground for abortions. This includes downsyndrome, clef lip, clef pallet and club foot.
Reduction from 24 weeks to 22 or 23 weeks
In 2023 former Conservative MP Caroline Asnell boldly put forward an amendment to reduce abortion from 24 weeks to 22 weeks. While ideologically this amendment would have addressed gross inconsistencies in neonatal care vs late term abortion provision, and numerically would have saved more lives than the Heidi Carter campaign. It is still drastically less than the proposed life saving of this bill.
| Reduction from 24 weeks to 22 weeks | ||||
| 2020 | 2023 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| 22 weeks | 559 | 670 | 483 | 753 |
| 23 weeks | 534 | 780 | 571 | 939 |
| Total | 1093 | 1450 | 1054 | 1692 |
In conclusion it is our view the heartbeat bill campaign presents the best achievable strategy for significant abortion harm reduction at the present time. Not only does it have the potential to save upward of 120,000 babies a year across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland but it also will improve the quality of information.
Notes
*Abortion Grounds
| Ground D | (regulation 6(b)) that the continuance of the pregnancy would involve risk to the life of the pregnant woman which is greater than if the pregnancy were terminated |
| Ground E | (regulation 7(1)(b)) that the condition of the fetus is such that if the child were born it would suffer from such physical or mental abnormalities as to be seriously disabled |
Workings: if you believe any of our workings and estimates to be wrong, please do get in touch to provide better workings. We can be contacted at info@heartbeatbill.co.uk
Sources:
UK Gov Abortion Statistics
Northern Irish Abortion Statistics
Scottish Abortion Statistics
